Fourth international online seminar "Artificial Societies and Information Technologies"

Agent-based modeling of the Russian economy in the spatial and sectoral context
Friday, November 13, 2020
Aleksandra Mashkova

On November 13, 2020,  the seminar was held dedicated to the report of Ph.D., associate professor of the Department of Information Systems and Digital Technologies, Oryol State Technical University, senior researcher CEMI RAS Mashkova Alexandra  "Agent-based modeling of the Russian economy in the spatial and sectoral context".

Brief annotation.

The report is devoted to the results achieved in the development of an agent-based model for forecasting the Russian economy in the context of its sectoral and spatial structure. The report considered the structure of the model, the creation of agents and the socio-economic environment, algorithms for the dynamics of the model, aspects of software implementation, information content, verification and calibration of the model, as well as a scenario calculation plan.
The developed model is the result of interdisciplinary research, it combines the methods of agent-based modeling, demographic and financial and economic analysis.
The methodology of computer modeling of the spatial development of Russia includes the following steps:
1. Data integration. At this stage, the current demographic situation in the regions, economic relations, administrative institutions, the educational system, and infrastructure in the regions are being recreated. For this, large arrays of open data are collected from various sources, checked for consistency, and reduced to the required form for loading into the model; generation of initial objects of the model and their storage in the database.
2. Dynamic simulation without control. At this stage, the population dynamics are modeled as a result of demographic processes, decisions and actions of resident agents, as well as the behavior of organizations that determines the dynamics of production, employment and investment.
3. Guided dynamic simulation. The purpose of this stage is to conduct a series of scenario calculations to assess the effectiveness of alternative control actions in various external economic conditions. Control programs include financing volumes and directions of state investment policy, tax rates and transfer payments, regional measures to develop the human resources potential of the regions.