Second international online seminar "Artificial Societies and Information Technologies"

Agent-based model of the COVID-19 epidemic in the city of Moscow
Friday, June 19, 2020
Elena Sushko

On June 19, 2020, a meeting of the seminar was held dedicated to the report of PhD in Economics, Leading Researcher Elena Sushko: "Agent-based model of the COVID-19 epidemic in the city of Moscow".

Brief annotation:
The report presents the author's approach to modeling epidemics using an agent-based simulation model. In the developed ABM, using actual statistical data on the population of agents, the age-sex structure of the population of the city of Moscow is recreated, and then the agents form families. At the beginning of the model, randomly selected agents are infected, each of which goes through the stages of the disease from infection to recovery or death, corresponding to the classical epidemiological model of the SEIRD class. In this case, the duration of each period for the agent, as well as the severity of complications, are determined in a probabilistic way in accordance with the characteristics of the specific infection that caused the epidemic, as well as taking into account the basic level of the agent's health. Infected agents in the model are capable of infecting others through personal contact, and on this basis, the spread of infection is simulated taking into account the social (kinship) ties of the agents. In the course of computer simulations, estimates of the course of the COVID-19 epidemic in Moscow were obtained at various values ​​of the model parameters, including the impact of quarantine measures on such characteristics as: the number of infected and deaths over the entire period of the epidemic; the date of the onset of the peak of infection and its magnitude; peak need for beds, including intensive care.

The meeting was attended by representatives of Russia (CEMI RAS, Moscow State University, Institute of Psychology RAS, Ufa Scientific Center RAS), the People's Republic of China (Shanghai Tianjin Company), Kazakhstan (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Nur-Sultan)