Twentieth international seminar "Artificial Societies and Information Technologies"

Agent-Based Model of the Spread of Respiratory Virus Infections
Friday, March 10, 2023
Andrey Vlad

On March 10, 2023, a meeting of the seminar was held dedicated to the report of Andrey Vlad: "Agent-Based Model of the Spread of Respiratory Virus Infections".

Brief annotation:

Acute respiratory viral infections are the most common cause of temporary disability in many countries around the world. A wide variety of causative agents of viral infections and their variability do not allow us to hope for a solution to this problem with the help of vaccination. The aim of the work is to build, implement in the form of software systems and test an agent-based model of the seasonal dynamics of acute respiratory infections of various etiologies in a metropolis, which can be used to simulate various strategies to reduce the incidence with an assessment of the effectiveness of the measures introduced.
The model describes the dynamics of SARS in a virtual population of 10 million agents whose characteristics are based on population census data. The society consists of collectives (households, educational institutions and work collectives), which include agents and in which contacts between agents are imitated. For each contact with an infected agent, the probability of infection transmission from the source agent to the susceptible agent is estimated, depending on the immune status, duration of contact, and other factors, which also include the effect of air temperature.
The constructed model reproduces the incidence for various age groups and respiratory viruses, obtained on the basis of weekly data on the number of issued sick leave sheets with a diagnosis of acute respiratory viral infections in medical institutions in Moscow. Computer experiments were carried out to study the impact of various scenarios of the introduction of quarantine in schools and global warming on the dynamics of morbidity.
The model was implemented in the form of software systems in the Julia programming language, with the launch of numerical experiments on a personal computer with a quad-core Intel Core i5-7300HQ processor. The virtual population initialization time is about 40 seconds, and the simulation time for the spread of SARS for 1 year in Moscow is about 3 minutes. The parameters of the model were estimated according to real morbidity data. The sensitivity of the results of the model to the variation of various parameters (social, immunological and virological) was studied.

The meeting was attended by representatives of Russia (CEMI RAS, Moscow State University, Ufa Scientific Center RAS), the People's Republic of China (Shanghai Tianjin Company), Kazakhstan (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Nur-Sultan)


Video of this seminar on our YouTube channel